Econometric modeling of development trends in the food industry

Abstract

The aim of research work is to develop proposals and recommendations for the sustainable development of the sector based on modeling trends in the development of the food industry.
As the object of the research work was selected the Food industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
The scientific novelty of the study is as follows:
control values were determined in the range from 0.43 to 41.68 for the production structure of twelve main food groups in the process of modeling structural changes in the food industry of the republic;
improved multifactor empirical approach to the development of the food industry and the use of target indicators of modeling, taking into account the share of exports and structural changes in the development of forecast indicators of production trends;
improved methodology of statistical analysis and assessment of modernization of the food industry based on industry characteristics, with a comprehensive definition of important influencing factors, such as mean deviations, vibration, correlation, approximation and determination of values and production function;
the production model of Cobb-Douglas was improved in the process of analysis and forecasting based on the priority of investments (K) in production and accelerated introduction of new technologies, taking into account the specifics of the national food industry.
Implementation of research results. Based on the scientific results of econometric modeling of trends in the development of the food industry:
the reference values developed for the production structure of twelve main food groups in the process of modeling structural changes in the food industry of the republic were used by the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics to improve the "Methodological provisions for assessing the cost of the total volume of industrial production" (reference No. 01 / 4-10- 15 / 2-68 of the State Statistics Committee of March 18, 2021). The use of these results made it possible to increase the accuracy of assessing future structural changes in the food industry in the regions of the republic;
a proposal for a multifactor empirical approach to the development of the food industry and the use of target modeling indicators, taking into account target forecasts, was used by the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on
Statistics to improve the "Methodological provisions for assessing the cost of the total volume of industrial production" (reference No. 01 / 4-10-15 / 2 -68 of the State Statistics Committee of March 18, 2021). As a result of the use of these
models, the republic contributed to an increase in the level of accuracy of forecasts of the growth rates of food products;
a proposal to improve the methodology of statistical analysis and assessment of the modernization of the food industry was used by the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics to improve the "Methodological provisions for assessing the cost of the total volume of industrial production" (reference No.01 / 4-10-15 / 2-68 of the State Statistics Committee from 18 March 2021). As a result of using the proposals, it became possible to correct and additionally clarify
the indicators of the modernization of the regions;
a proposal for prioritizing investments (K) in production and accelerating the introduction of new technologies in the process of analyzing and forecasting the Cobb-Douglas production model, taking into account the specifics of the national food industry, was used by the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics to improve the "Methodological provisions for assessing the cost of the total volume of industrial production" (reference No. 01 / 4-10-15 / 2-68 of the State Statistics Committee dated March 18, 2021). The use of the proposals served to improve the monitoring process of the total production of the food industry in the republic.
The structure and scope of the dissertation. The thesis consists of an introduction, 3 chapters, 9 paragraphs, a conclusion, a list of references and applications and the volume of the thesis is 132 pages.